Bayesian Approximation and Invariance of Bayesian Belief Functions
نویسندگان
چکیده
1 I n t r o d u c t i o n The Dempster-Shafer theory is quite popular in knowledge based applications. However, it's exponential computational complexity is a stumbling block. Several researchers worked on the problem of reducing the computational burden of the theory. The work in this direction was initiated by Barnett [1]. The approach of reducing the number of focal elements by certain approximation scheme was taken by Voorbraak [14], Dubois and Prade [2], and Tessem [13]. The work on propagation of belief in networks can be found in Gordon and Shortliffe [3], Shenoy and Sharer [10], Sharer and Logan [8], Sharer, Shenoy and Mellouli [9], Kohlas and Monney [6]. Kennes and Smets presented fast algorithms using mSbius transforms [4, 5] and Wilson [15] gave a Monte-Carlo algorithm for belief computation. All these methods have given rise to efficient implementation of Dempster's combination rule. Smets Ill, 12] considered pignistic probability distribution based on belief function describing credal state for decision making. He arrived at this distribution based on axiomatic justification for generalized insufficient principle. In this paper, we present results on invariance of Bayesian belief functions. These results help us to understand and interpret Bayesian approximation from a new perspective. In the light of this interpretation, we show that the properties of Bayesian approximation follow directly from the properties of the combination operator @ of Dempster's combination rule. Further, given these set of properties, Bayesian approximation is unique in the class of approximations which can be obtained as a combination of Bayesian belief function and any other belief function. Finally, we show that Bayesian approximation has some limitations. Due to restrictions on number of pages, proofs of the theorem and corollaries are not included in this paper.
منابع مشابه
belief function and the transferable belief model
Beliefs are the result of uncertainty. Sometimes uncertainty is because of a random process and sometimes the result of lack of information. In the past, the only solution in situations of uncertainty has been the probability theory. But the past few decades, various theories of other variables and systems are put forward for the systems with no adequate and accurate information. One of these a...
متن کاملEstimation of the Parameters of the Lomax Distribution using the EM Algorithm and Lindley Approximation
Estimation of statistical distribution parameter is one of the important subject of statistical inference. Due to the applications of Lomax distribution in business, economy, statistical science, queue theory, internet traffic modeling and so on, in this paper, the parameters of Lomax distribution under type II censored samples using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are estimated. Wherea...
متن کاملA Surface Water Evaporation Estimation Model Using Bayesian Belief Networks with an Application to the Persian Gulf
Evaporation phenomena is a effective climate component on water resources management and has special importance in agriculture. In this paper, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) as a non-linear modeling technique provide an evaporation estimation method under uncertainty. As a case study, we estimated the surface water evaporation of the Persian Gulf and worked with a dataset of observations ...
متن کاملA Surface Water Evaporation Estimation Model Using Bayesian Belief Networks with an Application to the Persian Gulf
Evaporation phenomena is a effective climate component on water resources management and has special importance in agriculture. In this paper, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) as a non-linear modeling technique provide an evaporation estimation method under uncertainty. As a case study, we estimated the surface water evaporation of the Persian Gulf and worked with a dataset of observations ...
متن کاملProject Portfolio Risk Response Selection Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remai...
متن کامل